What got built
- A database of every NFL game since 2022, with each player's DraftKings points and only the information that was known before kickoff.
- A model that gives every player a range, not one number: his 1-in-10 bad day, his middle outcome and his 1-in-10 great day.
- A game simulator that plays each Sunday out 10,000 times, with a quarterback and his receivers rising and falling together.
- A lineup builder that finds the best possible lineup in every one of those simulated Sundays, and a picker that chooses three lineups that win in different versions of the week.
- A weekly run that rebuilds everything when new salaries come out, freezes the picks at kickoff, and grades itself every Tuesday on what actually happened.
The test
Before trusting the new model, we tested it against the original on the entire 2025 season, a season neither had ever seen. Both predicted about 5,600 player-games using only pre-kickoff information. The rules for what counts as a win were written down and locked before we looked at a single result.
| What we tested | Winner |
|---|---|
| How many points a player scores | Original model |
| Ranking players against each other | Too close to call (V2 better at receivers) |
| How wide a player's range really is | V2, at every position |
| Odds of a 20 or 30 point game | Too close to call (V2 better at quarterbacks) |
| Which players boom together | V2 |
The original model said a quarterback would beat his "great day" number 1 time in 10. It happened 23 times in 100. V2's held at about 9. A quarterback and his top receiver both had a great day 11% of the time. The original expected 4%, and V2 came much closer.
What changes next
- One set of picks. The original model decides how many points each player should score, and V2 decides how wide his week can swing and who booms together. No more choosing between two models.
- A redesigned site, starting week 5. Built for phones first, it opens on the week's lineups drawn on a field, with a card for every player showing his range, his boom odds and why.
- Graded every week. The combined picks are new, so they're checked against what really happened every Tuesday. If they don't hold up, we'll see it in the numbers.